Two weeks ago, Bush had a 12-point lead in the Time poll.

That lead has shrunk to 4 points.

And in swing states, new voters are being registered in heavily Democratic counties at a much faster pace than in Republican-leaning counties.

So how close is this race, really?

And if Bush isn't winning, why did I spend the morning reading article after article after article in my New York Times suggesting that awkward, tentative lousy manager Kerry needs to make major changes to save his struggling campaign?