Last night I saw the clip of Bush saying, "I know what I'm doing when it comes to winning this war."

He sounded like your dad on a car trip when he was hopelessly lost and refusing to ask directions -- "Don't worry, I know where I'm going."

No, I'm being too charitable. He sounded arrogant -- he got that tone in his voice, that "I'll spell this out for you even though what I'm saying would already be obvious to you if you weren't such a moron" tone that's crept into more and more of his public pronouncements since the Iraq war turned sour.

In any case, it was a terrible, terrible gaffe. You couldn't hear it without hearing the implicit question to which it was an answer -- "What on earth is your plan for winning the peace in Iraq and getting the troops out?"

Bush isn't going to win over voters on the fence by insisting he knows what he's doing without offering any solid reason that anyone should believe him. Yet the line got applause at the campaign appearance. It's a good line as far as his base is concerned. And that's all the Bush campaign seems to care about.

So maybe it's no surprise that Kerry's ahead in most polls and has just gone up by 7 points in Florida.