Monday, April 12, 2004

THE MOST TRUSTED NAME IN NEWS

So, Jack Cafferty just informed us [on CNN] that John Kerry is making a big mistake by pulling out a "misery index" because in 1979 Jimmy Carter did something similar and his focus on the negative aspects of the economy caused him to the lose the subsequent election.

--Atrios, about half an hour ago

Er, no, that's completely inaccurate. Here's the story:

"The misery index" was first made politically newsworthy by Democratic Presidential Candidate Jimmy Carter in 1976.

During the Presidential campaign of that year, Mr. Carter constantly attacked then-President Gerald Ford for his mishandling of the American economy. Carter frequently noted that "the misery index" was in the mid-teens, as compared to much lower levels during the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s. Mr. Carter's criticism of President Ford's economic mismanagement was effective, helping him defeat the incumbent Republican President during the November 1976 election.

As the saying goes, however "what goes around, comes around" (or something like that). During the 1980 Presidential election four years later, Republican Candidate Ronald Reagan constantly made reference to President Carter's economic failings, as measured by "you know what."

By Election Day 1980, the "misery index" had moved even higher, with several monthly measurements above 20. Candidate Reagan's late battering of President Carter with his own index was also very effective, as Reagan handily defeated the incumbent Democratic President.


So there you go -- two presidential candidates in recent history have used numerical measures of economic miseery in campaigns, and both of them won. Nice work, CNN.

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