Americans Like Bush's Qualities, Poll Says

--CNN.com headline, 1/14/04

Well, not anymore, apparently. This is from the detailed breakdown of the new New York Times/CBS poll (PDF):

Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about George W. Bush yet to have an opinion?

Favorable: 38%

Not Favorable: 43%

Undecided: 18%

Haven't Heard Enough: 1%

Refused: --

That's the personal favorability question -- and Bush is at 38%. Not good for him.

(On the job question -- "Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?" -- approval is 46%, disapproval 47%.)

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By the way, there's something a bit misleading in the Times story about the poll. It says:

The survey held hints of trouble for Mr. Kerry as he seeks to introduce himself to an electorate that knows relatively little about him. While 55 percent of Mr. Bush's supporters said they strongly favored the president, only 32 percent of Mr. Kerry's supporters strongly favored their candidate.

But the choices in the poll question weren't just strongly-favor vs. don't-strongly-favor. The question is this:

Would you describe your support for [John Kerry/George W. Bush] as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?

Only 8% of Bush's supporters are voting for him because they dislike the other candidates -- but 38% of Kerry's supporters fall in that category.

There's no reason to think that's a sign of weak support for Kerry. It's almost certainly a sign that Kerry's support is strong -- because he's the anti-Bush candidate. We know how much anti-Bush voters loathe Bush. I'd put myself in that "dislike the others" category, and there's no way I'm not going to pull the Kerry lever in November.