Monday, November 17, 2003

More on the "Bush boom," from The New York Times:

Oregon — where the unemployment rate in September was 8 percent, the highest in the nation, according to the latest federal data — is, like dozens of other states, heavily reliant on manufacturing, a sector of the economy that has suffered huge losses in the last year.

But Oregon is not the only state unlikely to see economic recovery soon, experts say. California, with severe budget problems and continuing economic fallout from the high-tech bust, as well as a slew of states from Mississippi to Michigan whose economies have strong ties to manufacturing, are also likely to experience a slower recovery than the East Coast states, said Michael J. Donnelly, a senior economist at Global Insight, a national consulting firm.

Here in Linn County, which calls itself "the grass seed capital of the world" but where cash-poor farmers now find themselves with an overproduction of hard-to-sell grass seed, everything that could have gone wrong on the economic front did.

The situation is so bad in Albany, the county seat with a population of 41,000, that the state-financed local employment help center had to lay off three specialists in July because of Oregon's severe state budget problems. The people who were assisting others in their search for work suddenly found themselves thrust into an unforgiving job market, where one opening can draw as many as 300 desperate applicants.

Timber, the high-tech industry, manufacturing, food processing, prefabricated homes, frozen peas and corn, canned hamburger for the military and customer service for credit card companies — virtually every economic sector that supplies jobs to this county of 105,000 people in the Willamette Valley went sour at some point over the last decade. And economists say things still look grim.

"I don't think there are any great prospects for Linn County," Mr. Donnelly said. "It's going to take a while for Linn and Oregon in particular to get going."...


And even in Atlanta, where the recovery seems as if it might be taking hold, the Times reports:

"If you look back over the last couple years, this is the first time we've made it to October or November without seeing the economy turn down again," said James H. Reese, president of Randstad North America, which runs 28 temporary-help offices in the area. "But we're not ready to scream victory or wave the flag by any stretch of the imagination."

In this way, the city seems typical of much of the country, where economic growth is finally fast enough to create jobs but many people worry that the good news will be fleeting.

There are reasons for the caution. Many of the new jobs here are only temporary, and even many of the permanent ones pay less than those in the shrunken manufacturing and technology sectors did.

Personal income growth continues to trail inflation in Atlanta, according to Economy.com, a research company that follows regional trends. The bankruptcy rate has remained almost 35 percent higher this year than it was in 2000.

Maria Del Conte says she is thrilled with her temporary job as an administrative assistant at an engineering company north of the city, having lost two other jobs in the last two years. But Ms. Del Conte is still making about 25 percent less than she did before 2001, when she worked as a meeting planner for pharmaceutical companies.

"Because of the economy, there is no chance of becoming a permanent employee" in her new job, said Ms. Del Conte, who lives in Kennesaw, an Atlanta suburb, with her teenage daughter....

Little of the new hiring here is happening at the city's biggest employers. Executives at Delta Air Lines continue to discuss the possibility of more pay cuts, for example. United Parcel Service has become more efficient over the last year, allowing it to handle more business without adding workers....


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