If Schwarzenegger wins on Tuesday, we probably shouldn't be surprised.

But we also shouldn't be disheartened. Think about what happened to the last two political figures who went through huge scandals involving sex -- Bill Clinton and Clarence Thomas.

Bill Clinton's job approval ratings were strikingly high through the Monica period (early '98 to early '99) -- they were mostly in the mid-60s. But after Clinton avoided conviction in the Senate, his ratings went down somewhat. What's more, the taint of the scandal lingered. It hurt Al Gore in 2000 and it hurts Clinton's reputation (and the Democrats') to this day.

Clarence Thomas had a similar experience. As Jane Mayer and Jill Abraham note in their book on the Thomas confirmation battle, Strange Justice, 47% of Americans believed Thomas and only 24% believed Anita Hill in an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken in October 1991, the month of the Thomas hearings. But a year later there was a significant reversal of opinion: 44% believed Hill and only 34% believed Thomas. And by that time Thomas had become a national punchline, a fact that even David Brock's hit job The Real Anita Hill couldn't change.

Americans don't seem to want to be told that sexual behavior disqualifies someone in the political sphere -- at least while the attacks threaten that person's career. But when the scandal fades, the accusations linger -- maybe because now it looks as if the guy got away with something sleazy. It makes no sense, but we don't want these people bounced, yet afterward we don't like the fact that they weren't bounced.

So I think a year from now there's going to be a perception that a sleazebag got away with something in California and made it to the governor's mansion. This is going to taint the Republicans -- nationally, because Schwarzenegger is newsworthy coast to coast. Whenever Governor Schwarzenegger screws up, we'll be reminded, yet again, that he's also a groper who likes to goosestep. And it's going to make campaigning in California difficult for Bush.

The Republicans really want this win. They should be careful what they wish for.