TRUMP RETREATS INTO THE RIGHT-WING BUBBLE

If you're looking for a post about Melania Trump's prepared statement on Jeffrey Epstein, just go read Emptywheel, who thinks the First Lady is afraid of Amanda Ungaro, the Brazilian ex-girlfriend of Paolo Zampolli. Zampolli is a former modeling agent and Jeffrey Epstein pal who is now the United States Special Representative for Global Partnerships. The New York Times reported a couple of weeks ago that Zampolli pulled strings to get Ungaro deported, in the hope of getting custody of their teenage son. Ungaro has now threatened legal action against the Trumps.

Melania spoke yesterday either for that reason or because she expects some damaging journalism to drop soon. I think she might be afraid of the forthcoming Maggie Haberman/Jonathan Swan book because that book was the source of a recent New York Times story on how Trump made the decision to go to war. I'd be surprised if any other excerpts from the book appear soon, because it won't be published until June 23. But this might be on Melania's mind.

Melania is talking about Epstein while her husband is fully retreating, at least for the moment, into the right-wing bubble. The most obvious sign of his retreat is a rant he posted on Truth Social yesterday afternoon:

Normal people don't care that Trump thinks Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones are "low IQ." Normal people don't care about these right-wing media figures at all. But Trump's base cares deeply. These are titanic figures in the pathetic world of by the right-wing voters who, regrettably, control American politics.

These voters also hate immigrants and regard immigration as the most important issue ever, apart from the economy, and they agree with Trump that if one Haitian immigrant kills someone, then all Haitian immigrants should be forced to leave. The Guardian reports:

Besieged by questions about his war on Iran and his wife’s statement on Jeffrey Epstein, Donald Trump tried to shift the national conversation back to his immigration crackdown by posting a graphic, distressing video of a woman in Florida being killed last week by a man he described as an illegal immigrant from Haiti.

The video, taken by a surveillance camera outside a Fort Myers gas station, showed a man identified by authorities as a Haitian immigrant using a hammer to bludgeon to death the woman, who was reportedly a clerk at the gas station.

Substacker Pablo Manriquez notes that the victim was also an immigrant, a Bangladeshi named Nilufar Easmin.

I'm especially offended by the Trumpist core message on immigration -- that everyone in a particular ethnic group deserves to be deported if one member of that group does something pathological -- because I'm Sicilian-American on my father's side. When you say that people sharing an ethnicity with criminals don't belong here, you're saying that I shouldn't be here. You're saying my father shouldn't have been here and his Sicilian immigrant parents shouldn't have been allowed in.

The Sicilian Mafia has committed many crimes in America over the years. Is that my grandparents' fault? Is it my father's fault? Is it my fault?

None of us were criminals -- in fact, my father was a victim, roughed up by loansharks when he couldn't pay back money he'd borrowed. He was an honest truck driver who'd fought in World War II. His brother died in that war.

Trump believes in collective guilt, at least for non-white people. So does his base, which includes millions of voters. But I want to believe that most Americans don't.

And finally, there's this:

The Trump administration is finalizing a report that casts the Biden Justice Department as anti-Christian over its enforcement of laws protecting abortion clinics and enforcement of Covid regulations, among other issues, according to details of the report viewed by NBC News.

Only in the Republican bubble are six-year-old COVID restrictions still a burning issue, and only in that bubble is access to abortion regarded as abhorrent.

Add this to the administration's desperation to save fellow fascist Viktor Orban from electoral defeat in Hungary and you see an presidency that has no perspective on what Americans outside the right-wing bubble care about. It's still sometimes said that Trump has no strong political views, but he's clearly been Fox-pilled for at least fifteen years, and he'd clearly like to live in a world where everyone else is as Fox-pilled as he is. If only we could remove him from office so he could get his wish.

J.D. VANCE IS SO SEXIST THAT HE'S EVEN SEXIST WHEN TALKING ABOUT IRAN'S URANIUM

J.D. Vance traveled to Hungary to shore up the campaign of fellow fascist Viktor Orban. While there, he answered questions on the tarmac about the ceasefire in the Iran war, and he said something peculiar:

The vice president ... mentioned that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, noted that his country’s 10-point proposal to end the war included “Iran’s right to enrichment.”

“I thought to myself, you know what? My wife has the right to skydive, but she doesn’t jump out of an airplane because she and I have an agreement that she’s not going to do that because I don’t want my wife jumping out of an airplane,” Vance said in reaction to Ghalibaf’s comment.

What?

This is a bizarre analogy, but it would be more or less unremarkable if there weren't that I-am-the-master-of-my-domain twist at the end. Usha Vance, mother of three (and one on the way), doesn't skydive because her husband doesn't want her to? He makes that decision? Even if these weren't carefully chosen words, why did his brain immediately go to the idea that this is primarily his choice?

Donald Trump's treatment of women reflects the fact that he's an amoral monster -- a sexual assailant and a man who demeans every female reporter who asks him a tough question -- but while he gave us the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade, it's his underlings who advocate broad-spectrum sexism. Pete Hegseth wants to purge women from the upper ranks of the Pentagon just as he wants to purge people of color. And Vance -- well, you remember this 2021 pronouncement:

We are effectively run in this country, via the Democrats, via our corporate oligarchs, by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made, and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too. And it’s just a basic fact if you look at Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, AOC—the entire future of the Democrats is controlled by people without children. And how does it make any sense that we’ve turned our country over to people who don’t really have a direct stake in it?

And this:

In 2021, he told a Christian group, “So many of the leaders of the left, and I hate to be so personal about this, but they’re people without kids, trying to brainwash the minds of our children.” Did he really “hate to be so personal”? Come on. The comments were directed at Randi Weingarten, the leader of the powerful American Federation of Teachers. Weingarten, he added, “doesn’t have a single child. If she wants to brainwash and destroy the mind of children, she should have some of her own and leave ours the hell alone.”

Weingarten is the stepmother to her wife’s adult kids....

This was back when Vance was speaking in favor of a system that would give extra votes to families: an additional vote for each child, controlled by the parents. Vance could have dispassionately advocated this cockamamie scheme, which would advantage Republicans by diminishing the votes of those pesky childless women, who tend to be strongly Democratic. But he made it personal, because, presumably, these women (and Buttigieg) repulse him.

Vance is a manosphere dude in the Executive Branch, a man who, like his boss, thinks women deserve humiliation for failing to breed men's children. This attitude peeks out even when he's talking about enriched uranium: The mother of my children isn't jumping out of any airplanes!

If Vance wins the presidency in 2028, I think we'll see a national abortion ban. Trump, who's probably been the reason for a few abortions in his life, regards a full ban as a political third rail. Vance might also -- but I think his contempt for women will override any political considerations. I hope we never find out.

NOW WHAT WILL HE SCREW UP?

Is the Iran war over? I don't know. I think President Trump might take any deal he can get now, because the Iranian regime's refusal to kneel was making him look bad, but I think we could still arrive at an impasse soon, because the two sides' demands are incompatible. And if all this really is over, or will be over soon that increases my anxiety.

For the past five weeks, we've at least known the main arena where Trump was going to do horrible, ill-advised things. Sure, he was doing other terrible stuff, but Iran was his main focus.

Now what?

Trump is an addict who needs a stronger and stronger dose of edgelordism to satisfy his cravings. He's also an old TV guy who thinks every week is sweeps week, so he wants to devise special stunt programming to keep the audience engaged.

If, in the near future, he's not getting all this from Iran, he'll need to get it somewhere. I know he plans to overthrow the Cuban government, but, sadly, that will probably go more smoothly than the Iran war has. So his need to do something truly horrifying, ill-conceived, and transgressive, something that offends even some of his allies and that he he gets away with by the skin of his teeth, will persist until he satisfies it.

That's why I worry about the elections. Last night we saw again that Democrats are exceeding all expectations in off-year elections.

Democrats won a judicial election in Wisconsin -- a state Trump won -- by nearly 20 points, while also winning the mayor's race in Republican-leaning Waukesha.

I have never seen this much #blue in the state of #Wisconsin Sheboygan (blue collar, #manufacturing Trump +16) is blue The biggest swing was Crawford county, #rural on #Minnesota border- Trump +14 to Taylor (Dem) +22 - a 36 point swing left I think white working class is not buying it anymore

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— Soumya Rangarajan, MD, MPP (@soumya-goblue.medsky.social) April 7, 2026 at 11:23 PM

So I think he's coming for the elections. But he might just as easily find another place to transgress. He mentioned Greenland in Monday's press conference, so I don't think that's a dead issue.

He needs this amount of policy madness. I don't think he'll be satisfied with less now.


*****

I was surprised to see that nearly all of the most-liked comments in response to this Fox News ceasefire story were negative:

I can honestly say that I’ve never been more disappointed in this administration. This changes nothing. I realize I know zero about what is taking place through back channels. But unless this results in both 100% surrender of nuclear materials and 100% surrender of the IRGC and a relinquishment of power, this has all been for nothing. We’re now bargaining over the Straight of Hormuz? That was a forgone collateral damage we knew would happen before we even started this. The IRGC puts civilians around their power facilities, NATO threatens war crimes and we fold like origami. Now who looks like the paper tiger? I thought so much better of this administration.

****

If Iran gets to keep its 60% enriched uranium, then that means that Trump choked and the Iranians won. So disappointed in you right now Prez. So disappointed.

****

The regime is still in place. There has been no change. Trump is negotiating his surrender. Iran will be a problem once again in the future. Doesn't matter what deal is made. China and Russia will see to it.

****

As part of the plan, the US has in principle agreed to lift all primary and secondary sanctions against Iran. It has also agreed to accept Iran’s nuclear enrichment and recognize its continued control over the Strait of Hormuz. What did Trump's war accomplish

****

Trump got suckered, Iran is playing him like a fiddle, and the US is looking the fool for it.

****

I voted for Trump - Twice. He blew this one big time. Iran called Trump's bluff, he folded. There is no negotiating with Iran. He also blew Greenland.

****

Art of the deal:
1) Take something that was already working well
2) Do something to screw it up
3) Whine about it, threaten military actions, and tariffs
4) Negotiate a deal that was worse than where we started at step 1
5) Claim victory
6) Enjoy adulation from not so smart MAGA

****

Alright, who wants to bet Iran will put out a statement in the next 12 hours that they had no idea about this agreement?

****

I am really sick of Trump and his "lets make a deal" vision on every world problem. Mostly hes not solving anything and just stirring crap up for nothing. Tonights latest two week extension is typical Iranian stalling. Everybody saw it coming. So disappointed and tired of Trump.

****

I’m a Trumper but boy what a stupid move 🤦‍♀️

****

Delay has always been in the Iranian playbook and we always fall for it.

****

Everyone knew Trump would back down. Whether a republican or democrat you just knew. Trump talks big on everything then backs down. He just wants attention. Destroy civilization??? Give me a break. Is there no one who will stand up to this idiot?? And you talk about Biden losing his mind. Trump sure as hell is no better. Neither one should be president. We need leaders not over the hill lunatics.

****

Every reason that Trump gave for starting the Trump War still exists:
-Iran still has missiles and drones, and the means to make more.
-Iran can reconstitute its nuclear program
-The Iranian regime is still in place, just more radical than before since the Revolutionary Guard is in control now.
-Iran is still killing its people.
--- Now it's the closing of the strait that's the biggest problem, which was NOT a problem before the start of the war.

The military has done an outstanding job on the military piece of the war. CinC Trump has FAILED on the political piece of the Trump War.

****

Mr. President, you may think you're jerking the Iranians around, being tough and making the deal, but the flip flops, and back and forth silliness not only jerks them around it jerks the American people around, specifically the US military families. Unbelievable. And so much for ending the endless wars.

****

Why does he keep caving to these terrorists? They keep playing him like a fiddle. I’m beginning to lose respect for him.

****

And this solves nothing. Acting like a lunatic for 48 hours and then magically cooking up a ceasefire does not provide anyone with a stable, solid solution. That might assuage the stock market for a few days, we might see a nominal drop in oil prices but we need stable; secure leadership for there to be a long term correction to the damage already done.

****

That's it! I've been a loyal Trump supporter for years. OG proud MAGA man. Even handsomely donated to Stop the Steal. But this lack of follow through leads me to believe he's full of bunk. Should have voted for Nikki Haley.

****

Careful, Mr. President. Don’t believe what they’re telling you. There are fewer honest Iranians than there are moderate Democrats.

****

Until Iran reopens the strait, nothing is certain. Trump may be negotiating with himself again

I'm not cherry-picking these. They're nineteen of the twenty most-liked comments. There's one pro-Trump comment in this group:

I know you TACO texters think you are cute but this is a good thing, both for the safety of our military and the lives of potentially innocent people in Iran. Everyone should be rejoicing in this announcement and hope and pray it leads to a permanent cease fire and a permanent non-nuclear Iran. Maybe we can all stop and pray for freedom for the Iranian people and the families of the tens of thousands of lives lost to their brutality.

Even this is more hopeful than triumphant.

I hope this is representative of at least one portion of Trump's base. If so, he's not fooling as many people as he used to.

DONALD TRUMP PLANS WAR CRIMES AND LONGS FOR PURITY

Yesterday I wrote about President Trump's late-night Truth Social posts of a video showing veiled, presumably Somali women at the Mall of America.

Donald Trump just posted a video of Somali people enjoying the Mall of America to the soundtrack of “Mad World” because he is a bigoted POS

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 6, 2026 at 12:35 AM

That's obviously Trump's idea of a dystopian hellscape. But a few hours before that, Trump gave us another glimpse into his own nightmares, re-posting this tweet of a woman washing her bedding with fire hydrant water at what I assume is a homeless encampment in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles fire hydrants seem to be working just fine now pic.twitter.com/xCCfYXTHHD

— One Bad Dude (@OneBadDude_) April 4, 2026

Then yesterday afternoon -- as he pondered whether to commit war crimes by destroying critical civilian infrastructure in Iran -- Trump gave us the flip side of his nightmares, with two posts of colorized footage from the past:

Trump shares footage of old New York and PARIS after his press briefing on Iran pic.twitter.com/n5JjYfaXbU

— RT (@RT_com) April 6, 2026

The message of these videos, and the L.A. and Mall of America videos, is obvious: In a bygone era, our cities were utopias where well-dressed white people strolled peacefully, and there wasn't a black or brown or Muslim or poor person in sight. This is an idea that right-wingers find captivating -- and plausible, so much so that the right-wing actor Kevin Sorbo recently humilated himself by tweeting this:

Look at this video of NYC in 1975, see how peaceful it was?

Look at how everybody seems to be enjoying their lives, and not contrast it to today. Our country has been ruined.pic.twitter.com/KiqGcmEnp9

— Kevin Sorbo (@ksorbs) April 5, 2026

Those of us who lived in the city in the 1970s could have told Sorbo that New York in that era was broke, crumbling, and crime-ridden. It's richer and safer now. There were 1,645 homicides in the city in 1975. There were only 305 last year.

You might have seen that Kevin Sorbo tweet. What you probably don't know is that a day before he posted it, American AF, aka @iAnonPatriot -- the same right-wing tweeter whose Mall of America tweet was picked up by Trump -- posted the New York City clip Sorbo used, but with an explicitly anti-Muslim message.

Footage of NYC in the 1970s is going viral..

Not a single Muslim in sight — it was perfect. pic.twitter.com/MAMFSJLkli

— American AF 🇺🇸 (@iAnonPatriot) April 3, 2026

Right-wingers look at the world and see only utopias and hellscapes. A utopia is a place where everybody looks and thinks like them. A hellscape is any environment where some people aren't exactly like them, or do things they don't like -- wear clothes they disapprove of, practice a religion they don't practice, cope with adversity in a way they find unsightly.

This is why right-wingers love AI slop. AI can create images in which enemies are vanquished brutes, Donald Trump is a young, muscular conqueror, and Jesus looks on and approves. Everything in an AI image is exactly the way the creator wants it to be. That's how right-wingers think the world should work -- and could work.

Those of us who lean left and live in cities know that our environment is flawed. We see the flaws every day. We also see the good things. Sometimes we love the balance and sometimes we hate it, but we don't think a place has to be perfect to be good.

We don't like the way our right-wing fellow citizens vote, but we favor government policies that would help them, too, like universal health coverage. Right-wingers, by contrast, look at us and think:

Trump's warning to Iran right now sound like a variant on that: Imagine no Iran.

God help us.

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— Marisa Kabas (@marisakabas.bsky.social) April 7, 2026 at 8:14 AM

Trump thinks that if he bombs Iran back to the Stone Age, the Persian equivalent of the Paris and New York videos above might magically emerge.

At least he's not promising to build Trump Tehran, complete with a gold statue of himself.



Did I say that right-wingers believe that everything is either a hellscape or (their idea of) a utopia? That's what I mean.

I THINK ILHAN OMAR OCCUPIES MORE REAL ESTATE IN TRUMP'S BRAIN THAN BARACK OBAMA

While we wait to see whether the next phase of the Iran war will be a ceasefire, a massive series of war crimes committed on President Trump's orders, or Trump chickening out on those war crimes because investors and his Gulf pals don't want much more infrastructure damaged, let's look at one of Trump's Truth Social posts from last night's posting spree:

Donald Trump just posted a video of Somali people enjoying the Mall of America to the soundtrack of “Mad World” because he is a bigoted POS

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) April 6, 2026 at 12:35 AM

I say "one of" his posts, but he actually posted this twice last night -- once with no text and once with the text that originally accompanied the video. That was in a three-month-old X post from an influencer called American AF (@iAnonPatriot), a bigot whose followers include Donald Trump Jr., Lauren Boebert, Megyn Kelly, and Mike Flynn. Here's that original tweet, which offers no evidence for its main claim:

This is literally the”Mall of America” in Minnesota.

85% of these people are on welfare, btw. pic.twitter.com/mf0gzQiYdj

— American AF 🇺🇸 (@iAnonPatriot) January 15, 2026

Trump's decision to post this has been ascribed to garden-variety racism, but note that he's not showing us Black people in typical American clothes. Trump assumes that the veiled Black women he sees here are Somali. The fact that there are veiled Somali women anywhere in America makes Trump crazy. One veiled Black woman from Africa especially infuriates him: Minneapolis congresswoman Ilhan Omar.

Trump hates Omar so much that he mentions her in social media posts that have nothing to do with her. Here's a message he's posted four times this year, as part of his campaign to oust Greg Goode, a Republican state senator from Indiana who has resisted Trump's call for mid-decade congressional redistricting in his state.

I think Omar sets off a toxic bigotry chain reaction in Trump's brain. On the one hand, she dresses in a way that conceals her hair and skin, which, to Trump, suggests not only disgusting non-European foreignness but also lack of sexual access. (Trump believes women should attempt to live up to male standards of beauty and be sexually accessible, although I suspect that he finds nearly all Black women unattractive.) On the other hand, this traditionally dressed Black woman takes no shit from Trump and pushes back whenever he or any other right-winger attacks her. This plays into a common stereotype amnog white male racists, especially those from the urban North: that Black women are mouthy and rude. (Womnen are supposed to be accommodating and deferential to men, you see. And they should smile more!)

I believe that Minneapolis experienced the worst of ICE because Trump is fixated on Ilhan Omar, a woman whose very existence (and persistence) he finds utterly intolerable. In recent years, I think Omar's rent-free presence in Trump's head has made him angrier than Barack Obama's, and that's saying a lot.

THAT TRUTH SOCIAL POST WAS WHAT TRUMP'S BASE VOTED FOR

Yes, it's real. You can go here to see it at Truth Social.

People I respect are arguing on social media that this doesn't seem like a post Trump wrote himself. I disagree. I think it's Trump's genuine voice. Remember the golf course video after the 2024 debate with President Biden, a leak I'm sure came from Trump's own team?

You couldn’t leak a more flattering video of Trump if you tried.pic.twitter.com/yHyinmbEys

— Not the Bee (@Not_the_Bee) July 4, 2024

“How did I do with the debate the other night?” Trump asks a small group of people. When told he did “fantastic” and “amazing,” Trump continues, referring to Biden, “Look at that old, broken-down pile of c***. It’s a bad guy.”

Trump then goes on to claim that Biden has “just quit” the presidential race, which he says means that he will take on Vice President Kamala Harris in the election instead.

“I think she’s gonna be better,” he says, seemingly referring to his ability to beat her as an opponent. “She’s so bad. She’s so pathetic. She’s just so f***ing bad.”

Bob Woodward and co-author Robert Costa told us in their 2021 book, Peril, that Trump likes the F-word.

President Donald Trump exploded at then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper, yelling, "I don't give a fuck about your fucking transcript" after Esper threw cold water on his desire to quell protests with military force, according to a new book.

And in October of last year, Axios reported that Trump used the word as part of an effort to sell a possible peace deal with Hamas to Benjamin Netanyahu.

When Hamas came back with a "yes, but" to President Trump's Gaza peace proposal on Friday, Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss what he saw as good news.

Netanyahu felt differently. "Bibi told Trump this is nothing to celebrate, and that it doesn't mean anything," a U.S. official with knowledge of the call told Axios.

Trump fired back: "I don't know why you're always so f***ing negative. This is a win. Take it."

So this is how Trump talks.

Now, who's his target audience? I think it's Americans as much as Iranians. Trump knows he got bad reviews for his April Fool's Day speech on Iran. It was scripted and subdued, and nobody liked it. Some even called it "low energy." So this is the opposite.

Is this what his base likes? Take a look at the response to the golf course video in the tweet above, which is from a co-owner of the right-wing Babylon Bee.

You couldn’t leak a more flattering video of Trump if you tried.

The Truth Social post is the lead story at Breitbart. Breitbart's story begins:

Blunt, unambiguous and straight to the point. That was President Donald Trump on Sunday morning as he warned Iran of the perils that lie ahead if it fails to open the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.

I assume the post was teed up when it wasn't clear whether the mission to rescue the second of two downed U.S. pilots in Iran would be a success (it was). Trump wanted to be ready to change the subject if necessary. (Bizarrely, he's succeeded in changing the subject from a successful rescue mission to his temperament.) The post might also have been an effort to banish reporting on Trump health rumors from the headlines. (The White House denies that Trump had a medical emergency yesterday that required him to be transported to Walter Reed.)

Greg Sargent says:

This open threat of war crimes is pure sociopathic bloodlust and sadism but it's also another sign that he's failing and that he's in a fury about it.

He's threatening war crimes because he's failing. War crimes are how he intends to redeem himself. (No one whose opinion he respects or whose support he wants believes that there's anything wrong with committing war crimes against enemy Muslims.)

A Wall Street Journal story makes clear that he's eager to commit war crimes:

Top aides have privately made the case to President Trump in recent days that Iran’s power-generating facilities and bridges are legitimate military targets because destroying them could cripple the country’s missile and nuclear programs, officials say.

Trump embraced the rationale, sharply questioned by legal experts and human-rights groups, in a nationwide address Wednesday when he vowed to bomb Iran “back to the stone ages.”

If he holds back, it'll only be because allies in the region talk him out of it...

Trump’s threat to strike Iran’s power plants has alarmed some Gulf state partners who fear that it could spur Tehran to lash out at their energy infrastructure....

The fear of a spiraling series of tit-for-tat strikes on Middle East energy facilities isn’t a hypothetical concern. When Israel struck a major Iranian gas field last month, Iran responded by striking a major Qatar natural-gas field. And Kuwait on Friday accused Iran of attacking a major desalination plant.

... or because the markets react with panic on Monday (which may or may not happen).

But for now, Trump is the president his base voted for. Nobody in the base cares that he profaned a major Christian holiday. They think it's awesome. They regard this -- both the trash talk and the threatened brutality -- as a form of muscular Christianity.

WHY TRUMP ASSUMED IRAN DIDN'T HAVE AGENCY

In a New York Times conversation, Jamelle Bouie and David French discuss a fact Donald Trump doesn't seem able to grasp: that in a conflict, the enemy can fight back. Below I'll try to explain why Trump believes this.

Bouie says:

It’s very strange. I guess I’ve never really seen anything like it in American politics. Just an administration, a set of people, who have no real ability to just conceptualize what their political opponents, or their foreign enemies, might want to do of their own accord. It’s like they really do not believe that other people have independent action.

French says:

One of the reasons they look at the Venezuela situation, and they keep going back to that, is that it’s probably their most successful version of this, that Venezuelan intervention. But you go again and again, and you see the same pattern: “We have to pummel people harder.” And that works with Republican members of Congress, for example, but it doesn’t tend to work with other sovereign nations. Other sovereign nations don’t like to be pummeled. And so, what they’ll do is they’ll find a way to stop or prevent the pummeling, and it’s not always the way you want.

So, for example, if you’re trying to torment Canada, well, you can’t go crying if Canada says, “We’re going to forge a closer economic relationship with China and Europe than with the U.S., because we have self-preservation interests.” No. They keep thinking, if we pummel, then we’ll achieve the results that we want, when sometimes pummeling has the exact opposite effect. What it typically does is alienate people at scale.

I agree that Trump thought he could simply hit Iran as hard as possible and force a surrender, which is how he saw his assault on Venezuela. But "Use overwhelming force and you'll win" has been a successful strategy throughout his political career, at least until recently.

Remember that Trump was a success as a real estate developer, but was a failure after that. Then he had a mixed record as a famous person slapping his name on products. Then he became a TV star and had a show that was a hit, but after a few years it was less and less of a hit.

Politics is the only area in which Trump has failed (he always fails) and then returned to the top of the heap. Which doesn't speak well for politics. There's something wrong with any field that would allow Trump to dominate it twice.

Trump overwhelmed his enemies in 2015 and 2016. His primary opponents were too polite to get into the bare-knuckle brawl that might have beaten him, or to fight him strategically (for instance, with campaign withdrawals that might have cleared the field for a strong opponent). Also, Fox News and the rest of the right-wing media had pushed a coarse, pro-wrestling view of politics for so many years that Republican primary voters were eager for a hatemongering brawler.

Trump's general-election opponent had been pummeled by both the right-wing and mainstream media for years. That's why he was able to win an Electoral College victory.

Trump survived the Mueller report and an impeachment the same way he won the election: He was loud and crude, and the right-wing press defended him more forcefully than the Democratic Party and the rest of the media attacked him.

He lost the 2020 election, though the margins in the swing states were close. He was impeached again and he survived a second time. And then he was given room to mount a comeback. The legal cases against him were built too slowly. His 2024 primary opponents weren't able to kick him when he was down. He defeated a weakened Democratic Party.

To sum up: The political system never gave Trump the thrashing he deserved. Democrats and Republican critics fought too politely. The non-GOP media thought he was the true voice of the Volk and was far more willing to punch "wokeness" than Trump.

So Trump got used to the idea that the enemy doesn't have agency because for years his enemies did a piss-poor job of using their agency.

Until Chris Van Hollen pushed back on the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Until Canada put its elbows up with regard to tariffs and "51st state" talk. Until Greenland and Denmark pushed back on annexation. Until anti-ICE protesters pushed back in Minneapolis and elsewhere.

But there were still enemies who chose not to use their agency: big law firms, elite universities, members of Congress in both parties, Democratic consultants, op-ed writers who still obsessed over "wokeness" while demanding that Democrats throw trans people under the bus.

Trump thought they were the rule and the few determined resisters were the exception. He still thought he could work his will pretty much anywhere in the world he pleased. And now we're in a quagmire in Iran.