Wednesday, February 20, 2019

IS VICTOR DAVIS HANSON COMPLETELY UNAWARE OF TRUMP'S LIFE HISTORY, OR DOES HE JUST ASSUME THE RUBES ARE?

The New Yorker has just published Isaac Chotiner's interview of Victor Davis Hanson. Hanson, a classics professor and hack fluffer of Trump at National Review and elsewhere, is peddling a new book called The Case for Trump, in which he portrays the president as a tragic hero. Here's a quote from the book:
What makes such men and women both tragic and heroic is their knowledge that the natural expression of their personas can lead only to their own destruction or ostracism from an advancing civilization that they seek to protect. And yet they willingly accept the challenge to be of service ... Yet for a variety of reasons, both personal and civic, their characters not only should not be altered, but could not be, even if the tragic hero wished to change ... In the classical tragic sense, Trump likely will end in one of two fashions, both not particularly good: either spectacular but unacknowledged accomplishments followed by ostracism ... or, less likely, a single term due to the eventual embarrassment of his beneficiaries.
Hanson is arguing that Trump "seek[s] to protect" our civilization, even though he realizes that the struggle to do so will lead to his "own destruction," or to "ostracism" from the very society he seeks to shield from harm. How selfless of Trump!

But that's the problem -- apart from Kool-Aid-drinking fanboys, no one has ever written the sentence "How selfless of Trump!" non-ironically. Even many of his admirers realize that the man has never done a single selfless deed in his life.

Yet here's Hanson in the interview:
I think Trump really did think that there were certain problems and he had particular skills that he could solve. Maybe in a naïve fashion. But I think he understood, for all the emoluments-clause hysteria, that he wasn’t going to make a lot of money from it or be liked for it.
Yes, we all know how willing Trump is to sacrifice money and the praise of others for a Higher Cause.

Reading the interview, you can tell that Chotiner is straining not to say what he really believes, like a Daily Show interviewer, in the hope that Hanson will hang himself. I wouldn't have had the restraint. I would have at least had to ask when in Trump's pre-political life he had ever known Trump to put others' interests ahead of his own. Trump's charity didn't even give money away in return for glory, like every other rich man's charity. Trump just isn't capable of generosity, even with strings attached.

Hanson cites Achilles as an analogue to Trump:
Achilles has elements of a tragic hero. He says, at the beginning of the Iliad, “I do all the work. I kill all the Trojans. But when it comes to assigning booty, you always give it to mediocrities—deep-state, administrative nothings.” So he stalks off. And the gods tell him, “If you come back in, you will win fame, but you are going to end up dead.” So he makes a tragic, heroic decision that he is going to do that.
Yes, the late 1960s draft dodger who called avoiding sexually transmitted diseases his "personal Vietnam" sure seems like someone who'd pursue heroism at great personal cost.

Hanson can't possibly believe any of this, can he? But he likes the way people he doesn't like get roughed up by Trump -- immigrants, Barack Obama, and also, um...
... if you go back and look at the worst tweets, they are retaliatory.

What he does is he waits like a coiled cobra until people attack him, and then he attacks them in a much cruder, blunter fashion. And he has an uncanny ability to pick people that have attacked him, whether it’s Rosie O’Donnell, Megyn Kelly—there were elements in all those people’s careers that were starting to bother people, and Trump sensed that out. I don’t think he would have gotten away with taking on other people that were completely beloved. Colin Kaepernick. People were getting tired of him, so he took him on. All that stuff was calibrated. Trump was replying and understood public sympathy would be at least fifty-fifty, if not in his favor.

No, I mean, if you are going to attack a woman as ugly you want to make sure you at least have public sympathy on your side.

I think so. There are certain women that may be homely.
Hanson likes Trump. He likes Trump's boorish anger=. And while he surely knows that the Trump he describes bears no resemblance to the real thing, he knows no one else can class up Trump flackery the way he can, with all those fancypants classical allusions. He knows the deplorables will believe anything about Trump, and so, in his area of specialization, he'll tell them anything they'd like to hear.

MEDIA: FEEL THE MIGHTY POWER OF DONALD TRUMP

Yes, this happened, but why does it deserve its own new story?



President Trump revived the moniker of “Crazy Bernie” on Wednesday as he greeted the entry of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the 2020 presidential race.

“Crazy Bernie has just entered the race. I wish him well!” Trump said in a morning tweet, using the same nickname he used to deride Sanders when he sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016.

The subtext is: Be afraid, haters! The Mighty Trump is nicknaming again! That's also the subtext -- or the text -- of a story published by The Hill yesterday:
Trump working on labels for 2020 Dems: report

President Trump is reportedly working on possible nicknames for his potential 2020 Democratic challengers as the field of nominees continues to grow.

The Associated Press reports that sources close to the president have been working with Trump on labels for specific 2020 candidates. Two sources with knowledge of Trump's 2020 plans told the AP that the president has begun testing nicknames on aides and advisers as he prepares to reveal them publicly.

The president also plans to use early campaign rallies, the sources told the AP, to test the waters for nicknames he may lob at his potential opponents in the months ahead.
Did anyone not expect this? How is it news that he's merely thinking about employing his usual brand of schoolyard insults against the 2020 Democratic field?

This comes from an AP story on Trump's reactions to the Democratic campaign. Democrats, the story suggests, should be very, very afraid of the president's aggression:
In tweets, public remarks and private conversations, Trump is making clear he is closely following the campaign to challenge him on the ballot. Facing no serious primary opponent of his own — at least so far — Trump is establishing himself as an in-their-face observer of the Democratic Party’s nominating process — and no one will be surprised to find that he’s not being coy about weighing in.

Presidents traditionally ignore their potential opponents as long as possible to maintain their status as an incumbent floating above the contenders who are auditioning for a job they already inhabit.

Not Trump. He’s eager to shape the debate, sow discord and help position himself for the general election.
The AP story does call this "a risky bet that his acerbic politics will work to his advantage once again," and does note that "often Trump’s commentary reflects a peculiar sense of disengagement from the events of the day, as though he were a panelist on the cable news shows he records and watches, rather than their prime subject of discussion." But he's still portrayed as the mighty candidate-slayer:
This is the president whose 140-character blasts and penchant for insults made mincemeat of his 2016 Republican rivals. And Brad Parscale, Trump’s campaign manager, said the president aims to use Twitter again this time to “define his potential opponent and impact the Democrat primary debate.”
He's also portrayed as a spectral, menacing nemesis for law enforcement in the layout of yesterday's big New York Times story:



In the war against his investigators, the story says, Trump might be winning:
The attacks on the Mueller investigation appeared to have an effect. Last summer, polling showed a 14-point uptick in the percentage of Americans polled who disapproved of how Mr. Mueller was handling the inquiry. “Mueller is now slightly more distrusted than trusted, and Trump is a little ahead of the game,” Mr. Giuliani said during an interview in August.

... [William] Barr is ... respected among the rank and file in the Justice Department. Many officials there hope he will try to change the Trump administration’s combative tone toward the department, as well as toward the F.B.I.

Whether it is too late is another question. Mr. Trump’s language, and allegations of “deep state” excesses, are now embedded in the political conversation, used as a cudgel by the president’s supporters.
We shouldn't underestime Trump's ability to fight back. But these are hints that the media's respect for Trump might morph into awe over the next year and a half. That shouldn't happen.

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

AFTER TRUMP, THE AUTHORITARIAN DELUGE?

At the new anti-Trump conservative site The Bulwark, Christian Vanderbrouk wonders whether President Trump will ultimately be condemned by his biggest fans for not being sufficiently authoritarian.

Vanderbrouk writes about the emergency declaration:
While Trump may have stumbled upon his declaration as last resort, for his supporters, the “state of emergency” is an organizing principle. And if his presidency ends in failure and disgrace, his former supporters will likely blame him for lacking the fortitude to extend the logic of emergency to its authoritarian conclusion.
Trump made his emergency declaration in defiance of congressional Democrats and now intends to watch its fate play out in the courts, but some of his fans are impatient for more. As Vanderbrouk writes,
Fox Business host Lou Dobbs, who boasts 1.9 million Twitter followers and the attentive ear of the president, channeled the spirit of Grand Moff Tarkin in his plea for Trump to stamp out his congressional opposition. “I really believe that the way forward here is for him to declare a national emergency, and simply sweep aside the recalcitrant left in this country. They have — they have obstructed, resisted, and subverted for far too long,” Dobbs editorialized before a national audience.
And then there are these guys:
... even now some on the right are calling on [Trump] to forge ahead in defiance of a negative court ruling. Josh Hammer, a former federal law clerk, wrote last month that “It Is Past Time For Trump To Openly Defy A Federal Court.” Others like White House aide Stephen Miller and failed Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore have decried what they call “judicial supremacy,” which is another way of describing precedent-setting judicial review.
But as I regularly point out, Trump doesn't seem prepared to engage in this level of defiance. He's not making moves to dissolve Congress. He's not rejecting the notion that federal court decisions are binding on him.

So far, his base is okay with that. I think that's because he attacks his enemies in a way that's brimming with self-confidence and is so entertaining to base voters that they believe (a) he'll win on everything eventually and (b) it's a great ride until he does. They're not demanding true authoritarianism of him.

Vanderbrouk thinks this might not last much longer:
Expectations for deliverance have been raised, but met with dashed hopes and despair. Into the breach could be a greater yearning for a sovereign who will slip the bonds of the Founders’ constraints and rescue the nation by whatever means necessary.

And as the president’s political credit rating approaches junk status, it will be important to distinguish between Donald Trump, disgraced charlatan, and Trumpism, the movement that hungers for a strongman and now reserves judgment on his fitness for the role.
I think the Trumpist movement will give Trump a pass on his failure to bring forth the MAGA utopia at least up until he's about to leave office, and maybe afterward -- he's just so personally inspirational to the deplorables that they'll continue to assume any failings on his part are the result of stabs in the back by their enemies.

But the next Trumpist leader won't have Trump's reality TV and pro wrestling trash talk skills. The next one will have to deliver. And it's quite likely that the next one will know how to deliver. He or she will understand how to seize authoritarian power, and will eagerly do what Dobbs and Hammer and Miller now want.

But for now we have Trump, who's such a rock star in the eyes of his base that he gets away with not being the great dictator.

THE EDITORIALS IN THAT ALABAMA PAPER HAVE BEEN RACIST FOR QUITE A WHILE

This story from the Montgomery Advertiser has been getting a lot of attention:
The editor of a small-town Alabama newspaper published an editorial calling for "the Ku Klux Klan to night ride again" against "Democrats in the Republican Party and Democrats [who] are plotting to raise taxes in Alabama."

Goodloe Sutton — who is the publisher of the Democrat-Reporter newspaper in Linden, Alabama — confirmed to the Montgomery Advertiser on Monday that he authored the Feb. 14 editorial calling for the return of a white supremacist hate group.

"If we could get the Klan to go up there and clean out D.C., we'd all been better off," Sutton said.



Asked to elaborate what he meant by "cleaning up D.C.," Sutton suggested lynching.

"We'll get the hemp ropes out, loop them over a tall limb and hang all of them," Sutton said.
Goodloe Sutton has been a small-town journalist for more than half a century. He and his wife won nationwide acclaim in the 1990s when they uncovered corruption in the office a local sheriff, who was sentenced to prison time for his offenses.

That's admirable, and now Sutton keeps a local paper going when many others have folded. But Sutton is a crank and a bigot. This isn't the first time an editorial like this has appeared in his paper. In fact, this is probably not the paper's most racist editorial.

I've been looking in the paper's archives, and it didn't take me long to find equally offensive pronouncements. Here's one from May of last year:



When parents who are uneducated get a mindset on what's best for a school, watch out world.

Tribal rules from the dark continent will not suffice.
I don't quite understand the point being made here. Something something communism, something something teachers' unions, something something television and cellphones rot the brain. But it all seems to get back to the values of "the dark continent" -- a term for Africa that was used even in polite society when I was a child (and I'm a bit younger than Goodloe Sutton).

Here's one from 2015. It concerns Terri Sewell, a black congresswoman.



Again, blacks are collectivists:
Republicans believe in capitalism and the free enterprise system. Barack Obama and Sewell believe in the government running all business, industry, education, health care, and banking.
We move on from there to the slave trade (all King George's fault), and then to this:
In the South, the plantation owners fostered social, family, and religious life for the slaves.
Sklavery in the South was good for blacks. Of course that idea would show up.

Here's another one from 2015:



Not having grown up in America, Barack Obama harbors no pride in this country. He thinks of it as a welfare state where the money source is unlimited....

We could tell Obama was nothing but a shallow yard boy out of his element after his first speech eight years ago.

Why did not the television news shows jump on this hard?

Their Ivy League bosses told them to stay off the boy.
Yes, "the boy."

There's far more than I've unearthed here. And yet Alvin Benn, a reporter from the Montgomery Advertiser -- not the one who wrote the story about the Klan editorial -- praised Sutton in a 2015 USA Today story:
Weekly newspapers represent the heart and soul of small communities, and Goodloe Sutton is doing the best he can to keep The Democrat-Reporter off life support....

His bare-bones office staff is without an advertising executive to keep the weekly’s bottom line above water, and he’s seeking anyone with selling experience to consider the paper as a future.
Benn praised Sutton even though he knew that the man's work could be poisonous.
He’s still as irascible as ever and his racial references in headlines and stories still upset many of his readers although some dismiss them as examples of “Goodloe being Goodloe.”

On March 19, his main big-letter headline blared off the paper’s front page with: “Selma black thugs murder Demopolite Saturday night.” That would be a resident of Demopolis, Ala., population 7,500, and the largest city in Marengo County.

“What if they were white thugs from Selma, Goodloe?” I asked him. He didn’t respond to that question, but I seemed to detect a wink from him.
A wink! It was just Sutton being "irascible"! Nothing to see here!

Monday, February 18, 2019

A REAL COUP MIGHT HAVE BEEN EASIER

On the subject of Andrew McCabe, Republicans have found the magic word:
Senator Lindsey Graham, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, vowed on Sunday to investigate whether the top officials at the Justice Department and the F.B.I. plotted an “attempted bureaucratic coup” to remove President Trump from office, and said he would subpoena the former F.B.I. director and the deputy attorney general if necessary.

Mr. Graham, Republican of South Carolina, was reacting to an interview in which the former F.B.I. deputy director, Andrew G. McCabe, confirmed an earlier New York Times report that the deputy attorney general, Rod J. Rosenstein, had suggested wearing a wire in meetings with Mr. Trump and that Justice Department officials had discussed recruiting cabinet members to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Mr. Trump from office.
Alan Dershowitz called this "an attempt at a coup d'etat." Fox talking heads repeatedly called it a "coup" attempt, as did the rest of the right-wing media.

But what's being described wouldn't have been a coup. A coup would be tanks on the White House lawn and generals inside arresting the president and his subordinates. Using the 25th Amendment to remove a president is a process that's so cumbersome, and so full of choke points, that it might have been more difficult than a genuine coup.

Let's review Section 4 of the 25th Amendment. (I recommend doing this for your right-wing relatives when they start using the "c" word.)
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
So it's not as if a handful of FBI agents could unilaterally declare the president unfit. It had to be the VP and most of "the principal officers of the executive departments" -- the Cabinet. These were Trump appointees. Fox News reports that James Baker, a former FBI lawyer, claimed that a couple of Cabinet members were already on board:
“I was being told by some combination of Andy McCabe and Lisa Page, that, in a conversation with the Deputy Attorney General, he had stated that he -- this was what was related to me -- that he had at least two members of the president’s Cabinet who were ready to support, I guess you would call it, an action under the 25th Amendment,” Baker told the [House Oversight and Judiciary] committees [in closed-door testimony].
Two? Wow. There are fifteen Cabinet-level departments. The 25th Amendment says eight of them have to declare the president unfit to serve, plus the vice president.

But even if that happened, we'd have been far from done.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office...
So the president can just say he's fit to serve. He gets to veto this assertion of his unfitness. Then he's president again!

Unless...
... unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.
Okay, the same folks who said he was unfit at first would have to insist they were right and the president is wrong. (Remember, we're talking about Trump appointees, acting at a time when angry Trump supporters would be howling in the streets for their heads.)

But let's imagine that they stuck with their original assertion. Then what?
Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
Right -- the declaration that the president is unfit serve has to be upheld by a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress. This is harder than impeachment, which requires only a simple majority in the House, followed by a two-thirds vote in the Senate. And when this plan was allegedly afoot, both houses of Congress were solidly Republican. How the hell were the alleged plotters going to get a two-thirds vote against Trump under those conditions?

Tanks on the White House lawn would probably have been easier.

Sunday, February 17, 2019

THERE IS NO DEFINITION OF "WINNING" BEYOND "OWNING THE LIBS"

So this happened a couple of days ago:
President Donald Trump poked fun at his Democratic presidential challengers in a since-deleted Twitter video posted Friday afternoon....

The video features the ubiquitous song “Everbody Hurts” by R.E.M. overlaid on footage from the State of the Union address. The footage features shots of Democrats like California Rep. Eric Swalwell, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, California Sen. Kamala Harris and others.

The video was first created by Twitter user “CarpeDonktum,” whose bio section reads “Eternally Sarcastic Memesmith specializing in the creation of Images and Videos. I tweet and meme in support of Donald Trump. Posted content is 100% original.”
The point is that all of the Democrats in the clip look sad or disgruntled. That's it -- that's the whole joke. And yes, the president retweeted it.



We can say what we always say -- "Can you imagine if Obama..." etc., etc. But notice that this is a fanboy's measure of success for Donald Trump: He makes Democrats sad. (Also Mitt Romney, but much of the right sees him as an honorary Democrat.)

The vast majority of what Trump says in the clip is standard State of the Union platitiudes. There's also Trump's promise that America will never become socialist, and a boast about the employment rate. This is edited so it appears that Democrats hate job growth, but it's a reminder of one reason Republicans in 2018 didn't run on the economy, and why Trump spends much more of his time talking about other matters: In real life, Democrats aren't against jobs. The GOP base can't truly savor the unemployment figures in part because they don't induce liberal tears. That's why the base is much more excited about the wall.

As Gateway Pundit notes, members of R.E.M. complained about the video, and the band's music publisher successfully lobbied for the removal of the original CarpeDonkum tweet, which Trump had retweeted. (Someone needs to tell R.E.M. about the YouTube video above, and about another Twitter user's repost of the video.) Eventually CarpeDonkum updated the video with a new soundtrack: the unofficial right-wing national anthem, Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA." The president (or some staffer with the keys to his account) then tweeted the recut version:



That's what American patriotism is to conservatives: liberals being upset.

I don't like conservatives and I think they're destroying America, but I want better policies, and that's what I want to cheer for. Sure, I'd be thrilled if a number of these SOBs went to prison or lost elections, but that's not what I crave most. If you were happy on Election Night 2008, I bet it was less because John McCain and Sarah Palin lost than because someone you thought would do good things for America won. Our joy was seeing that family take the stage in Grant Park, not in watching McCain and Palin concede.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that's a difference between us and the right. Our primary goal isn't conservative tears.

Saturday, February 16, 2019

INVOKING JESUS TO DEFEND THE DEATH PENALTY IS NOTHING NEW

Here's a story that got attention this week:
... a Wyoming lawmaker who helped defeat a bill to repeal capital punishment used the novel argument that Christianity was founded on the death penalty, in the sense that Jesus was crucified by the state as a criminal.

“The greatest man who ever lived died via the death penalty for you and me,” State Sen. Lynn Hutchings, R-Cheyenne, told the Casper Star-Tribune. “I’m grateful to him for our future hope because of this. Governments were instituted to execute justice. If it wasn’t for Jesus dying via the death penalty, we would all have no hope.”
That may have sounded peculiar to a lot of you, but not to me. Here's a photo I took in Pennsylvania in late October 1988:



The Democratic candidate for president at that time was Mike Dukakis -- the last major-party candidate to be a declared opponent of the death penalty. He was attacked for this by the George H.W. Bush campaign, and then -- as is so often the case -- a mainstream-media journalist, CNN's Bernard Shaw, joined the pile-on by asking Dukakis a shocking debate question about his wife: "Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?"

Dukakis lost Pennsylvania by less than two and a half points. In fact, Dukakis won only ten states plus the District of Columbia. No major-party nominee has dared to be positioned as a death penalty opponent ever since.

Should we support the death penalty because Jesus was subject to it? Seems silly to me. But it's an old idea.

SHOULD WE REALLY ASSUME THAT VOTERS IN TRUMP COUNTRY CARE ABOUT THEMSELVES?

This seems like a smart move:
Heading into the week-long President’s Day recess, the office of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is distributing a spreadsheet to members logging a host of wide-ranging local projects potentially threatened by Trump’s effort to shift funds from military construction coffers to the border wall.

The list — nearly 400-projects long — features a number of ventures in GOP districts. It includes maintenance facilities for F-35 stealth fighters at Eielson Air Force Base outside Fairbanks, Alaska; the operation of a middle school at Fort Campbell, Kentucky; and funds to replace a training maze at Fort Bragg, N.C.

“We have to smoke out as many Republicans as possible by making the case that projects in their backyard are in jeopardy and will likely be raided to help pay for Trump’s ineffective and politically motivated wall,” said a senior Democratic aide.
Also, as Jen Hayden of Daily Kos noted yesterday, some of the money that would be diverted to wall construction could be coming from funds intended to build or upgrade housing for servicemembers and their families, some of which is in abysmal condition:
Where is Trump going to draw $8 billion from? $3.6 billion of it will come from funds that were intended for military construction projects—new and improved housing for military families, many of whom live in squalid conditions, including housing full of mice and mold. Only days ago, lawmakers held a hearing to discuss the conditions of housing for military families, and what the families described was the stuff of nightmares. From the Washington Post:
Crystal Cornwall, a Marine Corps spouse, told lawmakers about termites falling though light fixtures at an air base in Mississippi and mice chewing through infant pacifiers at Camp Lejeune, N.C.
And that is nothing compared to what Heather Beckstrom’s family has endured.
At Fort Bragg in North Carolina, Heather Beckstrom believes her daughter’s epilepsy, her son’s cancer diagnosis and her other son’s cleft palate are linked to the untreated sewer water from a chronically overflowing toilet that sent several inches of water gushing onto the floor. It occurred so frequently and forcefully, she said, that a water line was visible on the stucco from the outside.
Foreign Policy called the decision to divert these funds a “slap in the face to military families.”
“Having the president declare a national emergency in order to use [military construction] funding just days after a horrible SASC hearing on the terrible state of privatized military housing is a slap in the face to military families,” said Loren DeJonge Schulman of the Center for a New American Security. “The trade-off may not be direct—it’s not clear what the funding might have otherwise done—but it’s an ugly symbol of priorities.”
But will voters in Trump Country care? We know how few are abandoning Trump even after being punished by his trade policies. His support among Republicans is 87% in the latest Fox News poll. It's 85% in the latest Politico/Morning Consult poll.

Pelosi wants to put Republicans in Congress on the spot, but I think the vast majority in the House, and all but one or two in the Senate, will be resistant. They'll correctly calculate that GOP voters won't be upset about the diversion of funds even if it affects them personally. Trumpism is a Higher Cause. I'm sure most of Trump's base will remain loyal.

Friday, February 15, 2019

I'M NOT SURE NATE SILVER IS RIGHT ABOUT TRUMP

Nate Silver does a deeper dive into recent polls than I recently did, and he concludes that President Trump is harming his chances of a 2020 victory:
Trump Keeps Doubling Down On The Same Failed Strategy

... If Trump follows through on the emergency declaration, he’ll be doing something that large majorities of Americans oppose — and he’ll be doing it right as his job-approval ratings had begun to rebound following the partial government shutdown in December and January.

... Polls as tracked by PollingReport.com show an average of 32 percent of Americans in favor of the declaration and 65 percent opposed.

... the strategy suggests that Trump didn’t learn any lessons from the shutdown. His approval rating, which was 42.2 percent on the day the shutdown began, bottomed out at 39.3 just as the shutdown was ending. It has since mostly recovered to 41.5 percent, however. Despite Trump’s having capitulated to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in agreeing to reopen the government for three weeks, the sky didn’t fall and the base stuck with Trump.
That's Silver's first point: that Trump caved, yet his base stuck with him.
... Among Republicans, Trump’s approval rating was steady at roughly 88 percent before, during and after the shutdown. Among Democrats, it was also largely unchanged. Among independents, however, his approval rating plunged from about 39 percent just before the shutdown to 31 and 32 percent in two polls conducted in the midst of it, before recovering to 38 percent once the shutdown was over.
That's Silver's second point: that when Trump does unpopular stuff, like forcing a government shutdown, independent voters turn against him.

As Silver notes, Trump needs independents to win in 2020:
Trump won independents by 4 points in 2016 — 46 percent went to him and 42 percent went for Hillary Clinton. Had they gone for Clinton by 4 points instead, she would have won the national popular vote by 4 or 5 points, and won Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and possibly Arizona.
So he should stop doing stuff that alienates independents, because their support is conditional -- unlike the support of the base, which is unwavering.

The emergency declaration is just the kind of thing that alienates independents, Silver says. But is it? The shutdown touched a lot of ordinary Americans' lives -- air travel was disrupted, national parks were closed, and so on. Americans not a government payroll who are living paycheck to paycheck could relate to unpaid government workers who couldn't make the rent.

The emergency declaration isn't like that. It's an abstraction, and it'll probably be blocked in court, at least for a while. It won't stir up active outrage.

On the other hand, Trump needed to do something to persuade his base that he's still determined to build a wall. He could have just said he'd scrape together some other appropriations; his base would have bought that. But, as Axios's Jonathan Swan says, "President Trump liked the idea of declaring a national emergency because it's the maximalist, most dramatic option." Swan says that Trump believes "the reprogramming of funds to allow more wall spending, without declaring an emergency, would have been complicated to explain to voters." This is wrong -- if Trump said that was his brilliant plan to get the wall, the base would have believed it. In any case, he chose drama.

I think Silver's analysis is basically correct: Trump will continue to do whatever fires up the base, even if it alienates independents. That seems good for Democrats going into 2020. But Trump's political instincts aren't terrible -- he grasped that a second shutdown wouldn't play well, even though the base would have been delighted. And I think he has intuited that the emergency declaration might poll badly but won't inspire a visceral reaction among wary independents.

I could be wrong about this. But I predict that if he sinks his reelection chances, it will be as a result of other base-friendly behaviors, and that this won't be a factor.

EMERGENCY DECLARATION: THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM ABOUT A SENATE VOTE IS RIDICULOUS

President Trump plans to declare a national emergency in order to get his wall built. Democratis in the House will then vote to block him, and they'll force a vote on the same measure in the Senate.

The conventional wisdom is that the Senate might join the House in rejecting the emergency declaration. That's preposterous.

The New York Times explains what's about to happen:
Under the National Emergencies Act, the House and the Senate can take up what is called a joint resolution of termination to end the emergency status if they believe the president is acting irresponsibly or the threat has dissipated. Representative Joaquin Castro, Democrat of Texas and the head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said late Thursday that he was ready to introduce such a resolution if Mr. Trump followed through.

... the law says that if one chamber passes such a resolution, the other one must bring it up for a vote within 18 days. Though Democrats are in the minority in the Senate, they would need only a handful of Republicans to join them to pass the resolution there and send it to Mr. Trump’s desk. It is easy to imagine a half-dozen or more Republican senators joining Democrats out of concern for the precedent that Mr. Trump’s declaration will set.
It doesn't matter, because Trump will veto the resolution, and there's no way there'll be a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override the veto. But why is it "easy to imagine a half-dozen or more Republican senators joining Democrats out of concern for the precedent that Mr. Trump’s declaration will set"?

I don't care how many Republicans have expressed concern about this move. I don't care how much hand-wringing Marco Rubio and Susan Collins have done. There would need to be four GOP votes against the emergency declaration, and that won't happen.

Looking at the polling, you'd think Senate Republicans might have some cover to oppose the president -- GOP voters have somewhat wary of the emergency declaration idea, according to polls.
... in a CNN/SSRS poll released earlier this month ... only 64% of Republicans thought the President should go ahead -- a figure far lower than Trump's approval numbers with GOP voters.
In a Fox poll released this week, 74% of GOP respondents said they'd support an emergency declaration; 87% approve of the job Trump is doing as president.

But GOP voters have been less than solid in their support for a Trump emergency declaration because the president hadn't issued the declaration yet. Once he does, support among the party's voters will shoot into the nineties. On immigration, Republicans think we're at war, and that's how public opinion on war works. Recall the polling before and after the Iraq War started:
Gallup found that from August 2002 through early March 2003 the share of Americans favoring war hovered in a relatively narrow range between a low of 52 percent and a high of 59 percent....

Not surprisingly, Republicans (75 percent in favor) backed war more strongly than did Democrats (only 40 percent)....

Even many Americans who favored war were not demanding it. Gallup asked those who supported attacking Iraq whether they would be upset if President Bush decided not to go to war. Roughly half said no....

Once Operation Iraqi Freedom began on March 19, support for the war surged to 72 percent in Gallup’s polling....

More than nine out of ten Republicans supported the decision to go to war....
That's what will happen once Trump signs the declaration -- GOP support will top 90%, and scared Senate Republicans will fall in line. The Senate won't embarrass Trump by rebuffing him on this.

Thursday, February 14, 2019

FOX: TRUMP IS FIGHTING THE REAL ENEMY

Media Matters has a supercut of Fox hosts conceding that President Trump's fight for the wall is primarily about reelection:



Fox contributor Dan Bongino explicitly said that Trump’s insistence on building a wall is about giving him a "political victory,” stating, "This is not about immigration. I think everybody at this table knows this.” Fox & Friends co-host Steve Doocy claimed Trump needs a wall "because he needs to start running for re-election." Fox’s Tomi Lahren argued, “When President Trump listens to his instincts on this, he is right, which is why he won the election in 2016. He will win on it again in 2020....”
The voters in Trump's base hate and fear immigrants, but they hate and fear Democrats more. We're the enemy. We're always the enemy. We were the enemy in the Bush years, when the right loved the Iraq War, torture, and Gitmo primarily because we hated them. We were in favor of going into Afghanistan, so the Bushies had to start another war, just to piss us off (not that they minded).

In the end, it's always about us: owning us, inducing our tears, keeping us out of power.

A DEFEAT FOR TRICKLE-UP ECONOMICS IN QUEENS

Amazon withdraws:
Amazon on Thursday canceled its plans to build an expansive corporate campus in New York City after facing an unexpectedly fierce backlash from some lawmakers and unions, who contended that a tech giant did not deserve nearly $3 billion in government incentives.

The company, as part of its extensive search for a new headquarters, had chosen Long Island City, Queens, as one of two winning sites, saying that it would create more than 25,000 jobs in the city.

But the agreement to lure Amazon stirred an intense debate about the use of government incentives to entice wealthy companies, the rising cost of living in rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods, and the city’s very identity.
What a shame! The Amazon deal was already helping the community, and by "community" I mean "real estate speculators, some of whom have never even set foot in the neighborhood." Here's a New York Times story from late December:
... in early November, news broke that Amazon would build a vast campus in the neighborhood and hire more than 25,000 employees.

The deal ... has been greeted with euphoria among real estate brokers who have seen a sudden gold rush of interest in the local condo market.

Some inquiries have come from Amazon employees, but since only a few hundred will arrive in 2019, most buyers have been investors and New Yorkers looking to relocate to a neighborhood on the rise.

... the rush has fueled concerns that a gentrifying neighborhood will become even less affordable, as “tech bros” push out the working class....

Kayla Lee put on a hard hat and took a large work elevator to the roof of Corte, an eight-story condo building under construction where she is the sales director....

The apartments Ms. Lee, a broker for Modern Spaces, shows at Corte are barely framed out and will not be habitable till next October. They range from $560,000 studios to penthouses selling for nearly $3 million.

Since the Amazon news, Corte has raised prices about $30,000 per apartment; more increases are planned.

... One overseas buyer bid $2 million for an apartment without seeing it. When Ms. Lee took 30 minutes to respond, he raised his offer by $20,000. He is now in contract.
A Wall Street Journal story noted that brokers "are renting vans and packing them full of clients eager to view multiple buildings, or holding group tours in Chinese." There are a lot of Chinese-speaking city residents, particularly in Queens, but I strongly suspect that these particular Chinese speakers aren't among them.

But hey, how can you pass up the opportunity to live like the folks in Silicon Valley?



The unemployment rate in Queens County is 3.4%. Queens and the rest of the city will do fine without Amazon. And Amazon will probably find another city willing to fork over $3 billion -- though it would be great if that didn't happen.

ON THE WALL, TRUMP'S A LOSER -- BUT HIS BASE DOESN'T THINK SO

In The New York Times, Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman describe an administration that's trying to limit its losses:
Trump Puts Best Face on Border Deal, as Aides Try to Assuage an Angry Right

In pursuit of a wall, President Trump ran into one. A single-minded drive to force Congress to finance his signature campaign promise has left Mr. Trump right back where he started, this time seeking a way to climb over the political barrier in his way after trying to charge through it did not work.

As he inched closer to reluctantly accepting a bipartisan spending compromise without the money he demanded for his border wall, Mr. Trump offered no acknowledgment on Wednesday that his pressure tactics had failed even as aides sought to minimize the damage by tamping down criticism on the right.

One call was made to Lou Dobbs, a favorite of Mr. Trump’s whose Fox Business Network show he often tries to catch live. Another was placed to Sean Hannity, the Fox host who regularly talks with the president. The message: Mr. Trump deserved support because he still forced concessions that he would never have gotten without a five-week partial government shutdown.

Even so, it was arguably the most punishing defeat Mr. Trump has experienced as president....
Meanwhile, Politico's Gabby Orr describes a president who's playing up his opposition to abortion in order not to lose the support of immigration-obsessed Evangelicals:
... Trump’s recent public focus on abortion ... has delighted his evangelical Christian supporters. During his State of the Union address last Tuesday, Trump used vivid imagery to claim that New York’s new abortion law would “allow a baby to be ripped from the mother’s womb moments before birth.” And he accused Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, who’s backed similar legislation in his state, of wanting to allow medical providers to “execute” babies after birth.

Abortion is a somewhat unlikely new cause for a president who years ago called himself “very pro-choice” and did not make the issue a central theme of his 2016 campaign. But people close to Trump say that he has developed an increasingly sincere passion for the cause.

That passion also conveniently dovetails with what they call a concerted recent effort to energize white evangelicals who might otherwise be turned off by the concessions Trump appears poised to make to Democrats who have refused to meet his demand for $5.7 billion in wall funding. In need of a boost with his base, Trump is turning increasingly to social and religious issues.
Both of these stories proceed from the assumption that Trump is struggling with his base. But is he?

A look at recent Trump job approval polls collected by Real Clear Politics suggests that Trump is making a comeback. During the shutdown, Gallup had Trump's approval disapproval numbers at 37%/59%. Now he's at 44%/52% -- 8 points under water rather than 22. Politico/Morning Consult had Trump at 41%/56% during the shutdown (-15); now he's at 45%/51% (-6). Fox had him at 43%/54% (-11) and now has him at 46%/52% (-6). The Hill's HarrisX poll had him at 44%/56% (-12) and now has him at 47%/53% (-6). And while even Rasmussen had him down by double digits during the shutdown (44%/56%, -12), he's now at 50%/49% (+1).

A couple of polls still show Trump struggling -- Economist/YouGov (41%/57%, -16), Reuters/Ipsos (39%/57%, -18) -- but the trend is obvious. Trump is averaging 43.6% approval -- still a weak number, but close to his 46.1% popular vote total in 2016.

The base doesn't think he lost. The base believes that he'll find a way to build the wall -- or that construction is already well under way. Trump is also benefiting from a lot of news (Ilhan Omar, the Green New Deal, Virginia) that plays in the right-wing media as confirmation of the belief that Democrats are a satanic force bent on destroying America and Western civilization.

Trump is trying to minimize his losses, but the numbers suggest that he's not losing at all -- his fans still think he's a winner, and all they really care about is that he despises Democrats as much as they do and never stops fighting them, regardless of the outcome. Baffling as it is to the rest of us, he retains the loyal support of nearly enough people to steal a second presidential election. That's unlikely to change in the next 21 months, so we have to work hard to outvote the diehards.