tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post6477780419891404066..comments2023-10-24T09:06:30.200-04:00Comments on No More Mister Nice Blog: YES, PAUL RYAN DELIVERED FOR THE CRAZIES. I STILL DON'T THINK THAT WILL SAVE HIM IN THE LONG RUN.Steve M.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11963290427258439242noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-37668875257045387152015-12-21T18:32:47.660-05:002015-12-21T18:32:47.660-05:00I've been thinking for a few weeks now that th...I've been thinking for a few weeks now that the GOP will have a "semi-brokered" convention that will end up with Rubio as the party's nominee. I haven't seen anybody who agrees w/me, but here's how I get there:<br /><br />Roughly speaking, a candidate needs 1200 out of 2400 (rounding off, here) delegate votes to secure the nomination. Party leaders and sundry insiders have about 600 votes that will remained "unpledged" at the beginning of the convention. Since I don't believe any of these votes will go to Trump unless he already has secured the nomination prior to the convention, Trump needs to get 1200 votes - roughly 2/3rds of the votes awarded during the state contests - in order to secure the nomination.<br /><br />Stated another way, in order to secure the nomination Trump needs to get twice as many delegates as all the other candidates combined. This is possible, I suppose, but it seems unlikely. Which means (b/c I agree that Trump is likely to do better than any other candidate in the state contests) that there will be no confirmed nominee prior to the beginning of the GOP convention.<br /><br />But the Republicans do not want to actually engage in a "for real" brokered convention - it would look too messy - so they will agree to consolidate around one candidate and cast all their unpledged votes for him (and, in the GOP, it will be a "him"). <br /><br />Their best case scenario is that Rubio earns about 600 votes in the state contests, meaning they can award the thing to him outright during the first round of voting by unanimously casting all the unpledged votes for him - but this would mean that Rubio has managed to be the second-place finisher in terms of pledged delegates ('cause I am figuring on about 800 - 900 delegates, roughly half the votes available, being taken by Trump).<br /><br />The big threat is that Cruz ends up in second place. Then the GOP would have to make a hard choice: either (i) cast their votes for Cruz during the first round, anointing him the nominee but saving themselves from the messiness of a "for real" brokered convention, or (ii) push the nomination voting into multiple rounds (a "for real" brokered convention) and try to persuade sufficient delegates to switch to Rubio.<br /><br />Bottom line: if Rubio wins the 25% of pledged delegates necessary to avoid a brokered convention, Rubio becomes the nominee. If Cruz does, the GOP has to choose b/w a candidate they all loathe and despise, and a messy, fractured convention undertaken in the hope of getting a candidate they like.Swellsmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14081366954207653398noreply@blogger.com