tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post5843919463880544197..comments2023-10-24T09:06:30.200-04:00Comments on No More Mister Nice Blog: NO, DAVID BROOKS, REPUBLICAN VOTERS DON'T WANT THE BORING RUGSteve M.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11963290427258439242noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-76498052611060259852015-12-05T00:13:25.214-05:002015-12-05T00:13:25.214-05:00Hayzeus fracking crisco, Steve M., I KNOW I read t...Hayzeus fracking crisco, Steve M., I KNOW I read that whole article when it came out but that part with the Trump-Bottleboy theoretical whap-down just didn't sink in, apparently.<br /><br />Oh well, at least it doesn't do anything to harm my overall prediction of the two big bullyboy fascisti bossing this process on the contestants side at least.Feud Turgidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05379322096770703017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-50922187015549679562015-12-04T19:54:21.634-05:002015-12-04T19:54:21.634-05:00Six months ago I was amused, now I'm looking a...Six months ago I was amused, now I'm looking at my meager Y2K store and thinking it's in need of an update. More ammo for sure, before it sells out.<br /><br />Whither or no this is the best idea Bill ever had is moot in the generally accepted vernacular as the longer this goes on the tighter Hillary's lock on both the nomination and the presidency. I'm not going feel the least bit wtf-ever about "throwing my vote away" on a green or labor candidate who actually represents my and my grandchildren's interests.Ten Bearshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594307610015584119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-20493982319623621832015-12-04T18:07:05.662-05:002015-12-04T18:07:05.662-05:00And as for that "ceiling" idea regarding...And as for that "ceiling" idea regarding Trump's support, see <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/11/25/9801594/donald-trump-marco-rubio-polls" rel="nofollow">this.</a>Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11963290427258439242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-3907702598870929382015-12-04T17:48:23.797-05:002015-12-04T17:48:23.797-05:00Republicans that can look past their own gut feeli...<i>Republicans that can look past their own gut feelings</i><br /><br />Are there any these days? Twenty years of Fox have taught them that it's all about <i>their</i> feelings and <i>their</i> grievances.Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11963290427258439242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-17280870807562240542015-12-04T17:09:34.884-05:002015-12-04T17:09:34.884-05:00Tom Hilton said: "Trump supporters looked at ...Tom Hilton said: "Trump supporters looked at almost every potential negative about the billionaire celebrity real estate tycoon candidate and viewed it as a positive." That doesn't promise a whole lot of volatility in Trump's support.<br />--<br />No, but it says nothing about that support growing, which seems unlikely. While predictions that Trump will soon have much LESS support are debatable, predictions that he will soon have much MORE support seem preposterous. He keeps selling to the sold, which might make them happy, but isn't making his tent any bigger.<br /><br />Republicans that can look past their own gut feelings know two important things about Trump in a general election. If he tops the GOP ticket, the GOP will lose badly. If he runs as an independent, the GOP will lose badly. Those realities put a hard ceiling on his support, and I doubt that ceiling will be high enough to carry him to the nomination. How he'll react to that is hard to predict, as has everything about this bizarre candidacy.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05741290230842283205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-16876257625247960052015-12-04T15:00:10.742-05:002015-12-04T15:00:10.742-05:00In response to Brooks and Silver, I'll just re...In response to Brooks and Silver, I'll just refer again to that <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-trump-supporters-20150825-story.html" rel="nofollow">Luntz-led focus group</a> in which "Trump supporters looked at almost every potential negative about the billionaire celebrity real estate tycoon candidate and viewed it as a positive." That doesn't promise a whole lot of volatility in Trump's support.Tom Hiltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17575511424823512042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-83070388886810028192015-12-04T14:17:27.482-05:002015-12-04T14:17:27.482-05:00So Trump 36% plus Cruz 16% = fascists 52%, plus Ca...<i>So Trump 36% plus Cruz 16% = fascists 52%, plus Carson 14% = two thirds of the GOP favor non-messianic self-funding celebrity billionaire crypto fascism, messianic third party billionaire funded actual fascism, or celebrity messianic grifto-magi - yet somehow the 'smart money' is on the guy in FOURTH place...?</i><br /><br />The latest conventional wisdom seems to be that the guy in <i>seventh</i> place, Chris Christie, is "making his move." He's at 2.8% in the RCP poll average, Trump is at 30.8%, but he's going to beat Trump, you betcha!Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11963290427258439242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-83929844001957311422015-12-04T13:55:34.089-05:002015-12-04T13:55:34.089-05:00Nooner's and Bobo in one day!
Steve,
You need...Nooner's and Bobo in one day!<br /><br />Steve,<br />You need a sedative or two... or six - and wash that down with a fifth of 100 proof vodka.<br />Oh, and do that near, or sitting on, a bed, so you won't hurt yourself when you fall.<br /><br />The pink or the blue rug?<br />Oh, will these travails for the pundit class never end?Victorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06609452382111686086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-85965708680105323682015-12-04T13:37:25.814-05:002015-12-04T13:37:25.814-05:00So Trump 36% plus Cruz 16% = fascists 52%, plus Ca...So Trump 36% plus Cruz 16% = fascists 52%, plus Carson 14% = two thirds of the GOP favor non-messianic self-funding celebrity billionaire crypto fascism, messianic third party billionaire funded actual fascism, or celebrity messianic grifto-magi - yet somehow the 'smart money' is on the guy in FOURTH place, yet to be backed in any poll by as many as one party faithful in ten, because he's (1) relatively way less scary to the party's establishment a few couch fainters than any of the leading three, the lead dog of which is kicking dog #4's rump by 3:1 BY HIMSELF, and (2) "....".<br /><br />I like this as way more real: assuming #3 and all the minnows exit at some point in the bathing suit, uhm, primary voting portion of proceedings, it's 56% Trump, 25% Cruz, 19% Rubio, and 81% most likely fascist.Feud Turgidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05379322096770703017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-28971989392265792342015-12-04T13:31:32.258-05:002015-12-04T13:31:32.258-05:00Yeah, that rug wasn't pink or blue, it was 14K...Yeah, that rug wasn't pink or blue, it was 14K gold Bobo, and if Charlie Pierce has a hair on his ass, he'll see to it that Moral Hazard pisses all over the damn rug. Ordinarily you need to go to Maureen Dowd at the NYT for metaphors that fatuous. Or to Peggy Noonan at the WSJ if you want a touch of surrealism added to your triteness with a vodka back.Rand Careagahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04993454654652802173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-72887963771640710982015-12-04T13:24:39.677-05:002015-12-04T13:24:39.677-05:00I haven't paid my daily visit to Charles Pierc...I haven't paid my daily visit to Charles Pierce's blog yet, but I have a feeling there's going to be something about Moral Hazard and a blue or pink rug. <br />Four Bshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07523978967218994413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-73977161663016685862015-12-04T13:18:13.413-05:002015-12-04T13:18:13.413-05:00"People (Nate Silver) who make their living o..."People (Nate Silver) who make their living off polls don't trust these polls."<br /><br />Quite apart from the fact that there are also people (Sam Wang) in academic settings who do poll analysis better, explain it better, and decline to annoint it in anything like Silver's Special L'Huile de Serpent Sauce (which supposedly 'adjusts for immutables', or makes you feel more committed to the concept you just got more 'value', or more generally to game it into SEEMING more 'credible' for the slippery mystique, or maybe just because a sucker was just born and another and again and look and another ...), Silver himself wouldn't say 'don't trust these polls' because he never sez 'TRUST these polls' in the first place.<br /><br />ALL the most credible and reliable polling analysis is done off aggregation of large numbers of polls sampling differently, so many in fact that their sheer number largely overtakes tne need for any given individual poll to have been conducted competently, honestly or independently. But at this stage of the POTUS-picking process, we are not there yet: there are too few polls, which makes the individual biases of those present too strong, and those present are so few what we're 'learning' about is the same few being repeatedly sampled on behalf of the many haven't moved much.<br /><br />What's not to 'trust' about that? That's what happened to a lesser extent in 2012, and even lesser in 2008: until we get a LOT of polls, it's the few, the weak, the limited value. But that doesn't make them somehow 'untrustworthy' for what they are categorically.<br /><br />And what each is categorically is a hunk of meat to be shoved into the aggregation machine to make 'delicious nutritious' and categorically less suspicious PERCENTAGE sausage slurry, not PREDICTIVE pizza topping.<br /><br />We go thru this every cycle; people saying things about polls and the process that pollsters and analysts never claim for them.Feud Turgidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05379322096770703017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-25647846938018762052015-12-04T12:02:08.594-05:002015-12-04T12:02:08.594-05:00At this point the only value of a Brooks column (i...At this point the only value of a Brooks column (if there ever was one) is as a case study of the psychopathology of the bubble within a bubble Republicanism that the dwindling pool of non-fuckwit R's must engage in order to justify their continued affiliation with a party that has lost its collective mind.<br /><br />swkellogghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06282997501489101503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-25747337126652275102015-12-04T11:15:15.176-05:002015-12-04T11:15:15.176-05:00It feels weird, but I gotta go with Brooks on this...It feels weird, but I gotta go with Brooks on this one. I do not believe in the Trump Phenomenon. Wish I could but I do not trust these polls. People (Nate Silver) who make their living off polls don't trust these polls. There are some 27% of Republicans who will believe any conspiracy and follow any nasty wackjob who smiles at them. That's a pretty firm base for someone like Trump to look like a threat. Wake me up after Iowa. There's plenty of time to get excited then.<br /><br />Still think Trump is our best option, though. Just don't think he's going to last. I do think he's doing a serviceable job of crashing the GOP against the rocks. It's odd to me how upsetting that seems to be to a lot of liberals.mlbxxxxxxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05931351723996391533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-80943154049854995772015-12-04T10:13:36.002-05:002015-12-04T10:13:36.002-05:00Oh dear what a whistling past the graveyard we hav...Oh dear what a whistling past the graveyard we have here - "Once the Goths stop looting Rome they will settle down and decide on a proper Roman Emperor, not this Attila fellow they all seem so hepped up about" (Yes I know that's not historically accurate but neither is Brooks most of the time.)Professor Fatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05108986924433403691noreply@blogger.com