tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post1705266026235846408..comments2023-10-24T09:06:30.200-04:00Comments on No More Mister Nice Blog: MAY 2016: CLINTON +6. MAY 2012: OBAMA -3.Steve M.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11963290427258439242noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-4780082020939157992016-05-20T13:32:58.583-04:002016-05-20T13:32:58.583-04:00It's not 'just' American voters. It...It's not 'just' American voters. It's not even restricted to humans. We live in a universe where the arrow of time works off entropy, from simplicity and the illusion of order to complexity and the impression of chaos. In the result, it is impossible to predict the future on matters involving any significant degree of chance and a large element of apparent 'choice', 'favor', or 'whim'. The best that we can do, ASSUMING we have a certain actually rare combination of knowledge, skill and perspicacity, is make predictions based on probability.<br />MOST of us lack one or more of the necessary knowledge, skill or sense of perspective - which makes MOST of us just TERRIBLE at predicting the future, including predictions on what even our own personal preferences will be.<br /><br />Now, I can't even know whether or not you will feel enligthened or moved by Sam Wang's "February Model" on the subject of pre-election head-to-head polling in presidential contests, but I do suggest, most humbly, that you <a title="CLICK THIS" href="http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/01/what-do-head-to-head-general-election-polls-tell-us-about-november/" rel="nofollow">CLICK THIS</a> before embedding your thingmebob into your whosewhatsis over this question, particularly since we are now almost 3 full months into the Silly Season, during which all ups looks down, all downs look up, and everything gets under-observed yet over-determined.Feud Turgidsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05379322096770703017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-71753154109229764482016-05-20T11:14:50.471-04:002016-05-20T11:14:50.471-04:00petirili,
A smart and experienced pollster will as...petirili,<br />A smart and experienced pollster will ask for the person's demographic information well before the end.<br /><br />That's what's critical to the people paying for the poll - political and otherwise. <br /><br />This also makes the callee think the call is over, so you can get some more questions in, before they get tired of you, and hang-up.<br /><br />An experienced and smart poll writer, will get the most important questions in the beginning, and the fluff, later.<br />Unfortunately, there are a lot of shitty poll writers who don't do that. And a lot of the polls I had to read were WAAAAY too damn long. For no earthly reason.<br /><br />So, I'd get the demographics done early.<br />You don't need to finish the entire questionaire. Just about a half to two-thirds - as long as you got the demographic info.<br /><br />That was the 2nd worst job I ever had. The worst, was telemarketing.<br /><br />Oh, and btw, I'll work with a human calling, since I did that job and know how tough it is.<br />You robocall me?<br />Click.<br />Pay some humans, scumbags!<br />Victorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06609452382111686086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-14102759766652446252016-05-20T10:03:49.999-04:002016-05-20T10:03:49.999-04:00Thanks. I added the missing "I."Thanks. I added the missing "I."Steve M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11963290427258439242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-9777599674533833492016-05-20T09:44:31.983-04:002016-05-20T09:44:31.983-04:00Last paragraph needs a touch-up Steve.Last paragraph needs a touch-up Steve.Dark Avengerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02220642215040873632noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-79542924518885281362016-05-20T09:41:38.564-04:002016-05-20T09:41:38.564-04:00Wasting only half of my time doesn't seem prod...Wasting only half of my time doesn't seem productive. I have no beef with pollster. We all have to eat. I just don't want to do it.AllieGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07994768860067988405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-6632187438525002402016-05-20T09:22:53.314-04:002016-05-20T09:22:53.314-04:00If you really want to screw the pollsters, don'...If you really want to screw the pollsters, don't hang up right away. Do it about half way through the interview. I may be wrong but I don't think a legitimate poll can use any of your answers in an incomplete interview. I say this because I bailed on one once and she begged and pleaded me to stay on and finish.<br />petrillihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17889489779105405703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-70232391091282754422016-05-20T09:08:23.958-04:002016-05-20T09:08:23.958-04:00Imo, these polls can be discounted until the VP...Imo, these polls can be discounted until the VP's are chosen, and the conventions held.<br /><br />And even then, the polls swing until after Labor Day, when non-political junkies wake-up and start to realize that the Presidential election is less than two months away. <br /><br />Remember, after McCain chose Palin, they held a lead in the polls. And then, McCain fumbled the questions about the evervworsening economy and Palin showed how ignorant and bigoted she was.<br /><br />So, I'll not panic until after the first debate between Clinton and tRUMP. If she presses the right buttons, he may have a rage meltdown on national TV.Victorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06609452382111686086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3856837.post-7968871953272207152016-05-20T08:55:30.551-04:002016-05-20T08:55:30.551-04:00A relatively close race with Clinton ahead. This s...A relatively close race with Clinton ahead. This should be no surprise. IMO based on my own hanging up the phone when it's announced it's a poll (Rasmussen called just the other day, and the commercial surveys are 10 times as numerous as political ones) only the MOST politically committed voters respond to any polls. Since the Sanders argument now rests only on him polling better than Hillary, I'm not shocked a significant number of his independent supporters answer polls by saying they won't vote for her in November. They're playing the game for their team, not answering a survey.AllieGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07994768860067988405noreply@blogger.com