Thursday, March 31, 2016


I don't know how you interpret this Washington Examiner story, but I think it says that the GOP establishment is not afraid of a fight at the convention:
The Republican Party on Thursday is unveiling a website to educate the media and the public on the rules of contested presidential nominating convention.

The move is the latest concession by GOP officials that the party is close to holding its first contested convention since 1976....

" is a tool for voters to learn about convention delegates, rules, and how the overall process works in a simple, easy to understand format," RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner. "Conventions are democracy in action and our Party's gathering in Cleveland will be an exciting, transparent, and fair process."
Granted, the subtext of some of the copy on the site is "Don't blame the RNC if Trump doesn't win! We don't make the rules!"
Who Decides the Rules for the 2016 Republican National Convention?

The convention delegates decide.

A week before the Convention, the 2016 Convention Rules Committee must convene to put together a package of rules to recommend for consideration by all delegates.

Delegates from each state and territory elect two representatives from within their own delegations to the Convention Rules Committee -- 112 delegates in total.

The Convention Rules Committee, after debate and discussion, adopts by majority vote a package of recommended rules that moves to the convention floor.

Once a majority of the convention delegates adopt the report, the rules become the permanent rules governing that Convention.

That package, called a Rules Report, is adopted by the Convention Rules Committee by majority vote....

What is the RNC’s Role in Deciding the Convention Rules?

The RNC plays a purely administrative role at Covention, ensuring that the rules and process are carried out in a transparent manner.
Still, the message is "Don't have enough delegates for a first-ballot victory, Donald? Sorry -- you might not win":
What Happens in an Open Convention?

An open convention only occurs if a candidate fails to secure a majority of bound delegates during the primary and caucus process and is unable to win enough unbound delegates to obtain 1,237 delegate votes.

If that is the case, we will have an open and transparent convention where delegates -- empowered and selected by the grassroots -- will elect the nominee for our Party.

Yes, the site is passive-aggressive. (Subtext: "Hey, it won't be our fault if the delegates -- in a totally grassroots way -- choose someone other than the leading candidate.") But Priebus is preparing us for a brawl. If he ever wanted to avoid that, it seems to me he's not even trying anymore. So don't be surprised if someone other than Donald Trump emerges as the Republican nominee.


CH said...

I think there's a pretty good chance they'll successfully sidestep Trump and end up with a Ryan/Cruz ticket. If so, I'd wager that by and large, the R base (including the vast majority of Trump supporters) will fall into line within a month at most. As for the November outcome in such a case, let's just say I wouldn't bet the farm on HRC (assuming the D's remain hell-bent to nominate her).

Feud Turgidson said...

Y in THIS universe would Cruz take veep to Ryan? Dana Carvey as Poppy Bush: Na ga ha.

And Y in calculating ambition would Ryan want to become the new Harold Stassen? If Ryan wants the insider position to It's His Turn 2020, Veep to someone like Cruz sends any number of Wrong Messages, including his losing not just the election, but that status, massive gobs of good will with the party establishment OF WHICH HE IS NOW CLEARLY THE UNQUESTIONED LEADER, and any and all power platforms within Congress.

StringOnAStick said...

Ryan isn't going to give up his spot as house majority leader for a Hail Mary like this, and there is no way tRump will accept second banana. This is just a flare or too to keep tRump on his toes and wear out his minions.

Cirze said...

No one's going to be surprised.

He's just window dressing.

Joey Blau said...

"how the overall process works in a simple, easy to understand format," - it had better be simple... Third grade simple...

CH said...

Feud- I think Cruz might take 2nd place if it's that (with sweeteners) or nothing; he has no investment in the Senate nor any future there, & he does like lots of attention, which he'd get as a nat'l candidate, even VP. If the ticket flops, Cruz can always claim it was because he, a "true conservative" wasn't #1, & run again in '20.
As for Ryan, I suspect he'd give up the Speakership if he thought his odds of winning the general were decent - which they probably would be, given the media's idiotically benign view of him & given his absence from the R primary slagfest.