TWO POLLS SUGGEST THAT THE WINGNUT BASE STILL WANTS A MESSIAH, NOT ROMNEY
On Monday I said that Herman Cain might survive the sex harassment story, and now it seems I was too cautious
Businessman Herman Cain and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are running nearly even atop the field of 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows, with most Republicans dismissing the harassment allegations that over the past week have roiled Cain's campaign.
Seven in 10 Republicans say reports that Cain made unwanted advances toward two employees when he was head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s ... do not matter when it comes to picking a candidate....
At 23 percent nationally, Cain is neck-and-neck with Romney (24 percent) atop the GOP field.
However, there is this:
But the potential threat to his burgeoning campaign is evident as well, with Cain slipping to third place among those who see the charges as serious....
Although Republican men and women have similar views about whether the allegations against Cain represent a serious matter, GOP women are about twice as likely as men to say the whole situation makes them less apt to vote for Cain (25 to 12 percent).
Now, look at the new Rasmussen poll. I assume Rasmussen polls oversample wingnuts, which is why I don't take seriously any Rasmussen poll of the populace at large -- but a Rasmussen poll of the GOP might be fairly accurate, right? And Rasmussen has Cain leading Romney, 26% to 23%. They were tied in the last Rasmussen poll. So Cain is gaining -- right?
Well, yes and no. Here are the new and old Rasmussen numbers:
* NEW (11/2 poll): Cain 26%, Romney 23%, Gingrich 14%, Perry 8%, Paul 7%, Bachmann 2%, Huntsman 2%, Santorum 1%
* OLD (10/12 poll): Cain 29%, Romney 29%, Gingrich 10%, Perry 9%, Paul 5%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 2%, Santorum 2%
Cain and Romney are both down, as are Perry and Bachmann. Gingrich is up. Paul is up a bit. But these eight candidates now get 83% of the vote, as opposed to 90% a few weeks ago.
So maybe Cain is losing a little steam because of this scandal -- but Rasmussen says Romney isn't gaining as a result. Nor is anyone else except Gingrich and Paul, and evenm then, there's no surge.
On the other hand, maybe Rasmussen isn't accurate for the GOP -- maybe it's accurate for the crazy base of the GOP, but not for the old-fashioned Republicans who (according to Dave Weigel) are getting more and more acclimated to the notion of Romney as nominee.
Either way, I think the crazy base is clearly not ready to embrace Romney. You could even read the Rasmussen numbers as a suggestion that some of them are rejecting Cain because of the scandal but more of them are reacting to the scandal by saying, "Eeeuuuw! Not Romney!"
So I still say their lust for craziness will send them into the arms of somewhere other than Romney, until there literally is no alternative (and maybe not even then).