RUN FOR YOUR LIVES -- GIULIANI IS BUILDING MOMENTUM
Mitt Romney's strategy has been to become the front-runner by winning the early states; he (correctly) expects the press to respond to big victories in those states by declaring him the front-runner and presumptive nominee. In June, according to American Research Group's polling, Romney was 7 points ahead of Giuliani in Iowa and 8 points ahead in New Hampshire.
A month later, in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Giuliani is in first place, ahead of Romney by 1 point.
If Giuliani deprives Romney of decisive victories in New Hampshire and Iowa, Romney will be finished. He won't have momentum to take into states where he's now polling poorly. I think that's true even if Romney ekes out close wins in those two states. And if Romney loses either or both -- especially if he loses neighboring New Hampshire -- it's really all over for him.
Oh, and as for that other guy, Giuliani's 1 point ahead of Fred Thompson in South Carolina, and 6 points ahead of Thompson in Florida. (Yes, Thompson still has appeal. Alas for him, he hasn't been able to raise very much money to go with it.)
Giuliani's doing frighteningly well across the country. I continue to think he's going to win this nomination -- and I continue to think he's going to be extremely hard to beat in November.