Two-thirds of lenders nationwide believe a real estate bubble currently exists in the United States -- and half of them believe it has already begun to burst or will burst in the next six months, according to the results of this quarter's Phoenix Management "Lending Climate in America" Survey.
A significant 93 percent of lenders surveyed expect an anticipated housing correction to result in real estate prices declining 10 to 20 percent across the country.
...When asked when they believed the housing bubble would burst, thirty percent of lenders said it has already begun to happen. Twenty percent predicted it would occur in the next one to six months, and 27 percent thought it would happen seven to 12 months from now. Nine percent said it would occur in 2007.
Among the 92 lenders who participated in this quarter's survey, only nine percent said they did not believe a housing bubble existed....
I don't know much about Phoenix Management; it describes itself as "an operationally-focused advisory firm, providing turnaround, crisis and interim management and investment banking services to middle market companies in transition." These guys sure don't look like stereotyped liberal hand-wringers.