Believe this or remain skeptical, but Zogby says that Kerry's winning in 13 of 16 battleground states and that if the election were held today, Kerry would win in the Electoral College, 322-216.
And Electoral-Vote.com, averaging multiple pollsters' recent state polls, now has Kerry 253, Bush 264 -- both under the needed 270. Moreover,
Michigan and New Hampshire are exact ties. If Kerry wins Michigan and Bush wins New Hampshire, then Kerry wins the election 270-268.
(Zogby link via BuzzFlash.)