As Atrios notes, a new Newsweek poll has Kerry up 52%-44% in a two-way race (49%-42% with Nader). Zogby gives Kerry-Edwards a 5-point lead. So Rasmussen (1-point Kerry-Edwards lead) looks like the outlier.
...And things look worse for Bush when you read some of the items in this rather shocking Zogby analysis:
Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South. While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.
Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%....