I don't know if Federal Review's composite poll is any more accurate than any of the other damn polls out there. I link it for one reason: If the election were held tomorrow and the results were to match Federal Review's prediction, Kerry would win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College.
Yup, again. History could repeat itself.
FR's map looks a bit different from the 2000 map. But one factor is clearly still in play: Bush wins a lot of sparsely populated states, states with populations under two million -- or, in the case of Montana, Alaska, and the Dakotas, under a million.
My World Almanac tells me California's population is 52 times that of North Dakota. But California doesn't have 52 times as many electoral votes as North Dakota. California has 55 electoral votes. North Dakota has 3. (Every state has at least 3, included the ones I listed, all of which have populations roughly equivalent to that of Staten Island.) For proportionality, relative to North Dakota, California should have 156.
The Electoral College sucks. But here's a prediction: If Hillary runs for president and wins the E.C. while losing the popular vote, it'll be gone in a year.